chinadaily.com.cn
US Tariffs to Slow Asia-Pacific Growth, but Some Economies Show Resilience
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts a slowdown in Asia-Pacific economic growth to 4.9 percent in 2025 and 4.7 percent in 2026 due to higher US tariffs; however, large economies like India and Indonesia, driven by domestic demand, are expected to remain resilient.
- What is the projected impact of higher US tariffs on Asia-Pacific economic growth, and which economies are expected to be most affected?
- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts a slowdown in Asia-Pacific economic growth to 4.9 percent in 2025, down from 5 percent in 2024, and further to 4.7 percent in 2026. Higher US tariffs are expected to contribute to this slowdown, impacting developing economies. However, large economies like India and Indonesia, driven by domestic demand, show resilience.
- How do the economic structures of India and Indonesia contribute to their resilience against the negative effects of increased US tariffs?
- Increased US tariffs, announced April 2nd, will negatively affect Asia-Pacific growth according to the ADB. While some export-dependent economies face challenges, India and Indonesia's strong domestic consumption and investment will likely mitigate the impact. The ADB's forecasts, finalized before the tariff announcement, will be updated in July.
- What are the potential long-term implications of these tariffs on the Asia-Pacific region, and what measures can be taken to mitigate the risks?
- The ADB highlights the significant uncertainty surrounding the full implementation and ultimate effects of the new US tariffs. While the short-term impact is projected to be a slowdown in growth, the long-term effects on regional economies, particularly export-dependent ones, remain unclear and warrant further monitoring. Regional cooperation is crucial for mitigating the impact of trade tensions and broader economic vulnerabilities.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article frames the story primarily around the ADB's report and forecasts, giving significant weight to their projections of economic slowdown and the limited impact on specific countries. While it mentions concerns about tariffs and trade uncertainty, the overall tone suggests a relatively optimistic outlook, emphasizing resilience and mitigation strategies. The headline (not provided) would likely play a role in shaping reader interpretation.
Language Bias
The language used is largely neutral, employing professional and technical terminology appropriate for an economic analysis. Terms such as "resilient," "healthy trade surplus," and "mitigate" are fairly objective, although the choice of focusing on certain economies as examples could be seen as subtly influencing reader perception. Overall, the language maintains a relatively neutral and factual tone.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the ADB's perspective and analysis, potentially omitting other economists' or organizations' views on the impact of US tariffs on Asia-Pacific economies. It also doesn't deeply explore the potential for retaliation from Asian nations or the broader geopolitical implications beyond the ADB's assessment. The article mentions trade tensions and geopolitical conflict but does not elaborate on specific examples or their potential impact.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified view by highlighting only a few large economies (India, Indonesia, Vietnam) as either resilient or able to mitigate the impact. It doesn't delve into the varied experiences of smaller, more export-dependent economies within the region, creating a false dichotomy between these highlighted economies and the rest.
Sustainable Development Goals
Higher US tariffs are expected to slow economic growth in Asia-Pacific, impacting jobs and economic prospects. The report highlights that while some economies are more resilient due to domestic demand, the overall impact on employment and economic growth is negative. Quotes from ADB economists emphasize the potential for slower growth and uncertainty due to tariffs.