t24.com.tr
US-Turkey Trade: Volatility Ahead Under Potential Second Trump Term
US-Turkey bilateral trade totaled nearly \$30 billion in 2024, with Turkey having a small trade surplus; however, the relationship remains volatile due to past trade disputes and potential future tariffs under a second Trump administration.
- How have past US trade policies, such as tariffs, impacted Turkey's economy, and what broader implications does this have for global trade?
- The fluctuating nature of US-Turkey trade relations is linked to past trade wars and policy shifts by both countries. For example, Trump's administration imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Turkey in 2018, later reduced. The WTO ruled these tariffs violated global trade rules. This volatility highlights the need for strategic approaches to manage the relationship.
- What is the current state of US-Turkey trade relations, and what are the immediate implications of a potential second Trump administration?
- Turkey and the US have a significant bilateral trade volume of approximately \$30 billion. Recent data shows a slight trade surplus for Turkey (around \$10 million) during the January-November 2024 period. However, the overall trade relationship has been volatile, influenced by past trade disputes and tariffs.
- What are the long-term prospects for US-Turkey economic relations under a second Trump term, considering potential geopolitical factors and global trade dynamics?
- Future US-Turkey trade relations under a potential second Trump presidency could be even more volatile due to his history of protectionist measures and unpredictable reactions. The impact on Turkish industries, particularly steel and aluminum, will depend on the extent and duration of any new tariffs or trade restrictions imposed by the US. Turkey's proactive approach to preparing for potential tariffs will be crucial.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes the potential negative economic consequences of a Trump presidency for Turkey, highlighting past trade disputes and tariffs. While acknowledging potential opportunities, the negative aspects are presented more prominently and with greater detail, influencing the reader toward a pessimistic outlook. The headline and introduction contribute to this framing by focusing on uncertainties and risks.
Language Bias
The language used is largely neutral, although the repeated emphasis on "risks," "trade wars," and "iniş çıkışlı (ups and downs)" contributes to a somewhat negative tone. While this reflects the opinions of experts, a more balanced presentation could mitigate this impression. Phrases like "inşli çıkışlı bir yapıya gireceği" could be replaced with "more volatile" or "subject to greater fluctuation.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses heavily on the economic and trade relations between Turkey and the US, particularly concerning Trump's potential impact. However, it omits discussion of other significant aspects of the bilateral relationship, such as political or diplomatic ties. Additionally, the long-term consequences of Trump's potential policies beyond the immediate economic impact are not explored in sufficient detail. While acknowledging space constraints is reasonable, a broader perspective would enrich the analysis.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified view of the potential outcomes of a Trump presidency, focusing primarily on either increased trade conflict or improved relations. The complexities and nuances of the potential interactions, and the possibility of various other outcomes, are underplayed. This oversimplification might mislead readers into believing there are only two distinct possibilities.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article discusses the potential impacts of Trump