elpais.com
World Bank Forecasts Slow Global Growth Amidst Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks
The World Bank projects 2.7% global economic growth in 2025 and 2026, hindered by weaker US and Chinese performance, rising trade tensions, and geopolitical instability; developing economies face challenges in poverty reduction and income convergence.
- What are the key factors driving the projected slowdown in global economic growth, and what are the immediate consequences for developing economies?
- The World Bank's latest report projects global economic growth of 2.7% for 2025 and 2026, hampered by weaker performance from China and the US and heightened trade tensions. This is 0.4 percentage points below the 2010-2019 average, and developing economies will struggle to reduce poverty and close the income gap with advanced nations. The report highlights a concerning one-third reduction in global potential growth.
- How do intensifying trade restrictions and geopolitical uncertainties contribute to the overall growth forecast, and what specific policy recommendations does the report offer?
- Weakening growth is attributed to several factors, including intensifying trade restrictions (five times higher in 2024 than the 2010-19 average), geopolitical uncertainties (Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions), and the risk of rising inflation and sovereign debt vulnerabilities. The report emphasizes that these risks could further lower growth, while a successful disinflation and stronger performance from major economies could improve the outlook.
- What are the long-term implications of the widening income gap between developed and developing nations, and what are the potential systemic risks if the current trends persist?
- The report forecasts a sustained, albeit modest, growth trajectory driven by easing inflation and subsequent interest rate cuts. However, it warns of slower trade growth compared to previous decades and a widening income gap between developed and developing countries. The potential return of protectionist policies under a Trump presidency poses a significant threat to global growth and the convergence of developing economies.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The narrative emphasizes negative aspects of global economic growth, highlighting risks and challenges prominently in the introduction and throughout. The use of terms like "obstacles," "enshadow," and "bitter experience" sets a negative tone from the outset, potentially influencing reader perception.
Language Bias
The language used leans towards pessimism, employing words like "lastrado" (burdened), "amenazado" (threatened), and "trago más amargo" (bitter experience). While accurately reflecting the report's findings, these terms could be replaced with more neutral phrasing like 'constrained', 'challenged', and 'significant setback' to reduce the negative tone.
Bias by Omission
The report focuses heavily on global economic slowdown and risks, but omits discussion of potential positive factors or alternative economic models that could contribute to growth. While acknowledging limitations of space, the lack of counterbalancing perspectives on potential solutions or less pessimistic scenarios could limit the reader's understanding of the issue's complexity.
False Dichotomy
The report presents a somewhat simplistic view of the economic future, highlighting the risks and downsides without exploring the potential for diverse outcomes. While acknowledging some positive factors such as decreasing inflation, it doesn't fully grapple with the possibility of unexpected positive shifts.
Sustainable Development Goals
The report indicates that the growth of developing economies will be insufficient to reduce poverty and close the income gap with advanced countries. This is directly related to SDG 1, which aims to end poverty in all its forms everywhere. The slow economic growth, especially in developing nations, hinders progress towards poverty reduction.