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World Bank Forecasts Slowest Global Growth Since 2008
The World Bank forecasts 2.3 percent global GDP growth in 2025, the slowest since 2008 excluding recessions, primarily due to increased trade tensions and policy uncertainty; this impacts living standards and delays developing economies' return to previous growth trajectories.
- How have rising trade barriers and policy uncertainty specifically impacted the US and developing economies outside of Asia?
- Rising trade barriers and policy unpredictability have stalled global trade, reducing growth to 1.8 percent in 2025 from 3.4 percent in 2024. This has also increased global inflation to 2.9 percent, above pre-pandemic levels, particularly impacting the US, where growth is projected at only 1.4 percent. Developing economies outside of Asia are experiencing stagnation, with growth falling from 6 percent in the 2000s to less than 4 percent in the 2020s.
- What are the primary factors driving the significant slowdown in global economic growth, and what are the immediate consequences?
- The World Bank projects global GDP growth of 2.3 percent in 2025, significantly lower than previous forecasts, primarily due to increased trade tensions and policy uncertainty. This slowdown marks the weakest growth since 2008, excluding full recessions, impacting global living standards.
- What policy recommendations could significantly mitigate the projected global economic slowdown, and what are the long-term implications of inaction?
- Resolving trade disputes and halving tariffs could boost global growth by 0.2 percentage points in 2025-2026. Continued trade tensions and policy uncertainty risk creating a "development-free zone" in the Global South, delaying many countries' return to previous growth trajectories by nearly two decades. Strengthening global cooperation and institutions like the WTO is crucial to mitigate these negative impacts.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The article frames the global economic slowdown as largely a consequence of rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty, emphasizing the World Bank's report's findings as a primary driver of the narrative. The headline and introduction immediately highlight the negative forecast and the potential for a faster rebound if trade tensions are eased, setting a pessimistic tone. This framing emphasizes the negative aspects and the potential for improvement if certain conditions are met, potentially overlooking other contributing factors or positive developments.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral, but the repeated emphasis on words like "grimmer," "turbulence," and "stalled" contributes to a somewhat pessimistic tone. Phrases like "development-free zone" are evocative and potentially alarmist. More neutral alternatives could include words such as "slower growth," "challenges," and "economic slowdown." The use of "bitter trade war" is loaded language, favoring a conflict-based narrative over a more neutral one.
Bias by Omission
The article focuses primarily on the World Bank's report and its findings, giving less attention to other perspectives or potential counterarguments. While it mentions the IMF's forecast, it doesn't delve into potential disagreements or alternative analyses from other organizations. The focus is heavily on the economic consequences of trade disputes, but it does not fully explore the political dimensions or other underlying causes of these disputes. This omission could lead readers to overlook the complexity of the situation.
False Dichotomy
The article presents a somewhat simplified dichotomy between economic cooperation and trade disputes, suggesting that resolving trade disputes is the primary solution for boosting global growth. While this is a significant factor, the analysis overlooks other contributing elements to economic slowdown, such as climate change, domestic policy failures, or demographic shifts. The implication that economic cooperation is a simple solution overlooks the complex negotiations and compromises required to achieve such agreements.
Gender Bias
The article doesn't exhibit overt gender bias. The quotes and perspectives presented are primarily from male economists and officials from international organizations. While this is not inherently biased, it reflects a potential underrepresentation of female voices in international economic discussions. The article could benefit from including a wider range of perspectives from women in relevant fields.
Sustainable Development Goals
The report highlights a global economic slowdown, impacting developing countries disproportionately. Slower growth translates to reduced opportunities for poverty reduction and could push more people into poverty, especially in the Global South where per capita income growth is far below pre-pandemic averages. The projected slower growth significantly hinders progress towards SDG 1: No Poverty.