Tag #Economic Forecast

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lemonde.fr

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May 7, 16:13

Roubini Predicts 4% US GDP Growth by 2030, Driven by AI

Economist Nouriel Roubini, previously known for his pessimistic predictions, now forecasts a 4% US GDP growth by 2030 due to a powerful technological revolution driven by artificial intelligence, defying the IMF's prediction and highlighting the potential for technological advancements to override p...

Roubini Predicts 4% US GDP Growth by 2030, Driven by AI

Economist Nouriel Roubini, previously known for his pessimistic predictions, now forecasts a 4% US GDP growth by 2030 due to a powerful technological revolution driven by artificial intelligence, defying the IMF's prediction and highlighting the potential for technological advancements to override p...

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What are the potential long-term implications of Roubini's prediction for the global economic landscape, and what challenges or uncertainties remain in his assessment?

Roubini's positive outlook suggests that technological innovation, specifically in AI, may be a powerful enough force to overcome even significant political and economic headwinds. This implies that technological advancements could become a key factor in future economic projections, overshadowing traditional political and economic indicators.

cnn.com

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May 1, 13:15

US Recession Probability Jumps to 45%, Triggering Investor Flight to Safety

A recent Reuters poll reveals a 45% chance of a US recession within the next year, up from 25% last month, prompting investors to move money from stocks to safer investments due to President Trump's tariffs and subsequent trade war.

US Recession Probability Jumps to 45%, Triggering Investor Flight to Safety

A recent Reuters poll reveals a 45% chance of a US recession within the next year, up from 25% last month, prompting investors to move money from stocks to safer investments due to President Trump's tariffs and subsequent trade war.

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What is the immediate impact of the increased recession probability on the US investment market and investor behavior?

The probability of a US recession within the next 12 months has risen to 45%, the highest since December 2023, causing investor anxiety. This increase, fueled by escalating trade tensions and gloomy economic forecasts, has prompted a "risk-off" environment where investors shift funds from volatile assets like stocks to safer options.

theglobeandmail.com

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Apr 30, 16:13

Deloitte Predicts Canadian Economic Downturn Amidst Tariff Uncertainty

Deloitte Canada forecasts a near-term economic downturn with GDP shrinking 1.1 percent in Q2 and 0.9 percent in Q3 2024 due to fading pre-tariff activity and rising tariffs, leading to 7.5 percent unemployment in Q3 before a projected return to under 7 percent next year; however, long-term growth po...

Deloitte Predicts Canadian Economic Downturn Amidst Tariff Uncertainty

Deloitte Canada forecasts a near-term economic downturn with GDP shrinking 1.1 percent in Q2 and 0.9 percent in Q3 2024 due to fading pre-tariff activity and rising tariffs, leading to 7.5 percent unemployment in Q3 before a projected return to under 7 percent next year; however, long-term growth po...

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How will the decrease in business investment specifically impact employment in Canada?

The predicted economic slowdown is attributed to decreased investment following a period of pre-tariff surge in activity and uncertainty surrounding US trade policies. A significant 37 percent drop in machinery and equipment investment in Q2 exemplifies this trend, contrasting with a 30 percent surge in Q1. The resulting job losses contribute to the projected unemployment increase.

taz.de

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Apr 23, 01:13

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Due to Trump's Tariffs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast to 2.8 percent for 2025, citing President Trump's aggressive tariff policy as the primary reason, with Germany's growth now projected at zero, down 0.3 percentage points from earlier forecasts.

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Due to Trump's Tariffs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast to 2.8 percent for 2025, citing President Trump's aggressive tariff policy as the primary reason, with Germany's growth now projected at zero, down 0.3 percentage points from earlier forecasts.

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How do the IMF's different economic scenarios illustrate the impact of President Trump's tariff policies on global growth?

The IMF's revised economic projections reflect the significant uncertainty introduced by President Trump's tariff policies. The three scenarios presented highlight the considerable impact of these tariffs on global growth, ranging from 2.8 percent to 3.2 percent for 2025, depending on the tariffs included.

bbc.com

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Apr 22, 16:17

IMF Downgrades US Growth Forecast to 1.8% Amidst Trade War Uncertainty

The IMF drastically lowered its 2025 US growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.7%, citing increased trade tariff uncertainty as the primary cause, predicting a global economic slowdown and a 40% chance of US recession in 2025.

IMF Downgrades US Growth Forecast to 1.8% Amidst Trade War Uncertainty

The IMF drastically lowered its 2025 US growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.7%, citing increased trade tariff uncertainty as the primary cause, predicting a global economic slowdown and a 40% chance of US recession in 2025.

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What are the potential long-term implications of the current trade tensions and economic uncertainty for the US and the global economy?

The IMF's 40% probability of a US recession in 2025 underscores the severity of the situation. The combination of trade wars, reduced investment, and slower consumer spending creates a high-risk scenario. Further escalation of trade tensions could exacerbate the economic slowdown, potentially leading to deeper and more prolonged global economic challenges.

elpais.com

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Apr 22, 16:17

Spain Defies Global Downturn: IMF Upgrades Growth Forecast

The IMF upgraded Spain's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, defying global downward trends due to the US trade war, citing strong service exports, labor growth, and limited US trade exposure.

Spain Defies Global Downturn: IMF Upgrades Growth Forecast

The IMF upgraded Spain's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, defying global downward trends due to the US trade war, citing strong service exports, labor growth, and limited US trade exposure.

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How did Spain's service sector and labor market contribute to its economic resilience amidst global uncertainty caused by the US trade war?

Spain's economic resilience stems from its limited direct and indirect trade exposure to the US, mitigating the negative impacts of the trade war and associated uncertainty. This contrasts sharply with other major economies experiencing significant downward revisions in growth projections. The strong performance of Spain's service sector also contributed to its relative success.

dailymail.co.uk

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May 2, 16:14

S\&P Cuts Global Growth Forecast Due to US Tariffs

S\&P Global Ratings slashed global growth forecasts by 0.3 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 due to US trade tariffs, projecting a 0.5 percentage point decrease in US growth to 1.5 percent in 2025, while the UK is expected to have a higher growth than initially anticipated in 2025 (0.9 percent).

S\&P Cuts Global Growth Forecast Due to US Tariffs

S\&P Global Ratings slashed global growth forecasts by 0.3 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 due to US trade tariffs, projecting a 0.5 percentage point decrease in US growth to 1.5 percent in 2025, while the UK is expected to have a higher growth than initially anticipated in 2025 (0.9 percent).

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What are the potential long-term implications of the current US trade policy shift on the global economic landscape, and what uncertainties remain?

The long-term consequences of the US trade policy shift remain uncertain, according to S\&P. Further downward revisions to growth forecasts are possible, depending on the extent of the spillover effects from the tariff shock to the real economy. The report underscores the interconnectedness of global markets and the potential for significant disruptions stemming from protectionist trade measures.

theglobeandmail.com

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Apr 30, 16:13

Trump's First 100 Days: Market Volatility and Lingering Uncertainty

The first 100 days of Trump's presidency saw significant market volatility due to tariff-fueled chaos, resulting in trillions of dollars lost from U.S. assets; however, some markets rebounded as Trump moderated his policies, yet concerns remain about long-term economic damage.

Trump's First 100 Days: Market Volatility and Lingering Uncertainty

The first 100 days of Trump's presidency saw significant market volatility due to tariff-fueled chaos, resulting in trillions of dollars lost from U.S. assets; however, some markets rebounded as Trump moderated his policies, yet concerns remain about long-term economic damage.

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What were the immediate economic impacts of the first 100 days of Trump's presidency on global markets, and what specific data support these impacts?

During Trump's first 100 days, global markets experienced significant volatility due to tariff-related chaos, resulting in trillions of dollars lost in U.S. asset prices. The S&P 500 had its worst first 100 days since 1973, and the dollar index dropped almost 10%. However, some markets have since rebounded as Trump moderated his policies.

elpais.com

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Apr 24, 19:17

Germany's Stagnant Economy: 0% Growth Forecast for 2024

Germany's economy is projected to stagnate in 2024 after two years of recession, due to US trade policies and a lack of a functioning government; however, a new coalition government's economic stimulus plan aims for 1.0% growth in 2025.

Germany's Stagnant Economy: 0% Growth Forecast for 2024

Germany's economy is projected to stagnate in 2024 after two years of recession, due to US trade policies and a lack of a functioning government; however, a new coalition government's economic stimulus plan aims for 1.0% growth in 2025.

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What is the immediate impact of the revised German economic forecast, and what are the primary contributing factors?

Germany's economy will stagnate this year after two years of recession, according to Minister Robert Habeck. The government revised its growth forecast from 0.3% to 0.0%, citing Donald Trump's trade policies and the lack of a functioning government for months as major factors. A €500 billion infrastructure fund, including €100 billion for environmental protection, has been approved.

abcnews.go.com

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Apr 22, 16:17

IMF Downgrades Global Growth Forecast Amid Trump Tariff Uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% due to President Trump's tariffs and resulting uncertainty, predicting a 1.8% U.S. growth rate with a 37% chance of recession and slower growth for China and the European Union.

IMF Downgrades Global Growth Forecast Amid Trump Tariff Uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% due to President Trump's tariffs and resulting uncertainty, predicting a 1.8% U.S. growth rate with a 37% chance of recession and slower growth for China and the European Union.

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How do the IMF's predictions for China and the European Union differ in response to the U.S. tariffs, and why?

The IMF's revised forecasts reflect a global economic slowdown primarily attributed to the trade uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariffs. China's growth is expected to slow to 4% due to reduced U.S. demand, while the U.S. faces a supply shock similar to the pandemic's impact, potentially exacerbating inflation. These impacts highlight the interconnectedness of the global economy and the significant consequences of protectionist trade policies.

elmundo.es

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Apr 22, 16:17

IMF slashes global growth forecast amid Trump's trade war

The IMF drastically lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% due to Donald Trump's trade war, with the US growth falling below 2% and Mexico entering a recession; however, Spain's growth is revised upward to 2.5% for 2025.

IMF slashes global growth forecast amid Trump's trade war

The IMF drastically lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8% due to Donald Trump's trade war, with the US growth falling below 2% and Mexico entering a recession; however, Spain's growth is revised upward to 2.5% for 2025.

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How do the IMF's revised forecasts account for the differing economic performances of countries like the US, Mexico, and Spain?

The trade war's negative impact stems from increased tariffs and uncertainty, causing a global economic slowdown. The IMF's chief economist highlights that tariffs negatively affect the supply side, leading to resource misallocation and reduced productivity, while also decreasing competition and stifling innovation in the US. For trade partners, decreased foreign demand is a major consequence.

theguardian.com

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Apr 22, 19:18

IMF Slams Australia's Treasury for Underestimating Trade War Impact

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its 2025 growth forecast for Australia to 1.6%, a significant drop from 2.1% predicted in January, resulting in a $13 billion loss in annual output, contradicting Australia's Treasury's assessment of only "modest" economic damage from the rise in global ...

IMF Slams Australia's Treasury for Underestimating Trade War Impact

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its 2025 growth forecast for Australia to 1.6%, a significant drop from 2.1% predicted in January, resulting in a $13 billion loss in annual output, contradicting Australia's Treasury's assessment of only "modest" economic damage from the rise in global ...

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How significantly does the IMF's revised growth forecast for Australia differ from the Treasury's prediction, and what are the immediate economic implications of this discrepancy?

The IMF drastically lowered its 2025 growth forecast for Australia to 1.6%, a significant drop from the 2.1% predicted in January, resulting in a $13 billion loss in annual output. This contradicts Australia's Treasury, which predicted only "modest" economic damage from global protectionism, highlighting a potential miscalculation of the trade war's impact.

Showing 49 to 60 of 187 results