Showing 1 to 12 of 13 results
Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates Amid Growing Internal Divisions
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17th, but internal divisions persist regarding future rate cuts, as shown by the September dot plot.
Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates Amid Growing Internal Divisions
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17th, but internal divisions persist regarding future rate cuts, as shown by the September dot plot.
Progress
24% Bias Score
FOMC Poised for Interest Rate Cuts Amidst Softening Job Growth
Based on slowing job growth, downward revisions to prior employment data, and two dissents at the July FOMC meeting, markets anticipate two to three interest rate cuts before the end of 2025, with the first highly likely in September; further data releases will influence future decisions.
FOMC Poised for Interest Rate Cuts Amidst Softening Job Growth
Based on slowing job growth, downward revisions to prior employment data, and two dissents at the July FOMC meeting, markets anticipate two to three interest rate cuts before the end of 2025, with the first highly likely in September; further data releases will influence future decisions.
Progress
36% Bias Score
US Inflation Slows, FOMC to Hold Rates Amid Tariff Uncertainty
US May inflation rose less than expected to 2.4 percent year-on-year, core inflation remained at 2.8 percent, while the trade-weighted effective tariff rate reached 14-15 percent, suggesting a delayed impact of tariffs; the FOMC is likely to keep interest rates unchanged but faces uncertainty about ...
US Inflation Slows, FOMC to Hold Rates Amid Tariff Uncertainty
US May inflation rose less than expected to 2.4 percent year-on-year, core inflation remained at 2.8 percent, while the trade-weighted effective tariff rate reached 14-15 percent, suggesting a delayed impact of tariffs; the FOMC is likely to keep interest rates unchanged but faces uncertainty about ...
Progress
36% Bias Score
FOMC's 2025 Rate Cut Projections Uncertain Amidst Economic Volatility
Fixed income markets project multiple interest rate cuts by the FOMC in 2025, despite recent volatility, with the number of cuts uncertain due to rising longer-term bond rates and evolving economic forecasts, including projections of slower growth and higher inflation. A 50 percent chance of a 2025 ...
FOMC's 2025 Rate Cut Projections Uncertain Amidst Economic Volatility
Fixed income markets project multiple interest rate cuts by the FOMC in 2025, despite recent volatility, with the number of cuts uncertain due to rising longer-term bond rates and evolving economic forecasts, including projections of slower growth and higher inflation. A 50 percent chance of a 2025 ...
Progress
40% Bias Score
FOMC Rate Cuts Expected in 2025, Impact on Mortgage Rates Uncertain
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut interest rates in 2025, potentially lowering mortgage rates from the current 6.7% average for a 30-year mortgage, although market expectations are already somewhat priced in. Economic factors like tariffs and immigration could also impact t...
FOMC Rate Cuts Expected in 2025, Impact on Mortgage Rates Uncertain
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut interest rates in 2025, potentially lowering mortgage rates from the current 6.7% average for a 30-year mortgage, although market expectations are already somewhat priced in. Economic factors like tariffs and immigration could also impact t...
Progress
32% Bias Score
Dollar Gains on Higher Yields and Averted Shutdown
The US dollar index (DXY00) rose 0.20% on Tuesday, supported by higher US interest rates and the averted US government shutdown, while EUR/USD fell 0.14%, and USD/JPY rose 0.09%; gold and silver prices also increased amid geopolitical risks.
Dollar Gains on Higher Yields and Averted Shutdown
The US dollar index (DXY00) rose 0.20% on Tuesday, supported by higher US interest rates and the averted US government shutdown, while EUR/USD fell 0.14%, and USD/JPY rose 0.09%; gold and silver prices also increased amid geopolitical risks.
Progress
36% Bias Score
90% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in September
Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 90% chance of the Federal Open Market Committee cutting interest rates at their September 17 meeting due to softer-than-expected jobs data and cooling inflation; however, upcoming economic reports may alter this prediction.
90% Chance of Fed Rate Cut in September
Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 90% chance of the Federal Open Market Committee cutting interest rates at their September 17 meeting due to softer-than-expected jobs data and cooling inflation; however, upcoming economic reports may alter this prediction.
Progress
36% Bias Score
Judge Rejects Lawsuit to Open Federal Reserve Meetings
A federal judge rejected a lawsuit aiming to make Federal Reserve interest-rate setting meetings public, citing the FOMC's independent status, despite the plaintiff's claim of Sunshine Act violation. The judge also questioned the suit's timing and potential publicity motives.
Judge Rejects Lawsuit to Open Federal Reserve Meetings
A federal judge rejected a lawsuit aiming to make Federal Reserve interest-rate setting meetings public, citing the FOMC's independent status, despite the plaintiff's claim of Sunshine Act violation. The judge also questioned the suit's timing and potential publicity motives.
Progress
40% Bias Score
FOMC to Maintain Interest Rates, but June Cut Likely Amidst Tariff Uncertainty
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce interest rates on May 7, with markets expecting rates to remain at 4.25%-4.5%, but anticipating a potential cut in June due to economic uncertainty from tariffs, despite robust job growth and inflation above the target.
FOMC to Maintain Interest Rates, but June Cut Likely Amidst Tariff Uncertainty
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce interest rates on May 7, with markets expecting rates to remain at 4.25%-4.5%, but anticipating a potential cut in June due to economic uncertainty from tariffs, despite robust job growth and inflation above the target.
Progress
36% Bias Score
Dollar Rises on Hawkish Inflation Forecast, but Rate Cut Projections Temper Gains
On Wednesday, the dollar index (DXY00) rose 0.25% after the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged but raised its core inflation forecast and projected two 25 basis point rate cuts by year-end, amid conflicting signals about economic growth and uncertainty.
Dollar Rises on Hawkish Inflation Forecast, but Rate Cut Projections Temper Gains
On Wednesday, the dollar index (DXY00) rose 0.25% after the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged but raised its core inflation forecast and projected two 25 basis point rate cuts by year-end, amid conflicting signals about economic growth and uncertainty.
Progress
36% Bias Score
FOMC's Dot Plot: A Misleading Indicator of Monetary Policy
The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) dot plot, introduced in 2012 to increase transparency, has proven inaccurate and misleading, causing market volatility; FOMC members and chairs have expressed concerns, advocating for its discontinuation.
FOMC's Dot Plot: A Misleading Indicator of Monetary Policy
The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) dot plot, introduced in 2012 to increase transparency, has proven inaccurate and misleading, causing market volatility; FOMC members and chairs have expressed concerns, advocating for its discontinuation.
Progress
52% Bias Score
Inflation Nowcast at 2.9% May Signal Fewer Interest Rate Cuts in 2025
The nowcast for the December 2024 Consumer Price Index shows headline inflation at 2.9%, exceeding November's 2.7%, while core inflation remains at 3.3%; this data, coupled with a robust jobs market, may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in 2025.
Inflation Nowcast at 2.9% May Signal Fewer Interest Rate Cuts in 2025
The nowcast for the December 2024 Consumer Price Index shows headline inflation at 2.9%, exceeding November's 2.7%, while core inflation remains at 3.3%; this data, coupled with a robust jobs market, may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in 2025.
Progress
44% Bias Score
Showing 1 to 12 of 13 results