Showing 1 to 12 of 14 results
Rising Term Premium Threatens Equity Valuations
A recent unexpected stock market rally masks a rising U.S. Treasury term premium, a key indicator of investor risk assessment, which could significantly impact equity valuations, particularly for long-duration assets, and potentially trigger a market correction.
Rising Term Premium Threatens Equity Valuations
A recent unexpected stock market rally masks a rising U.S. Treasury term premium, a key indicator of investor risk assessment, which could significantly impact equity valuations, particularly for long-duration assets, and potentially trigger a market correction.
Progress
40% Bias Score
Surge in Treasury Term Premium: A Contrarian Investment Thesis
The U.S. Treasury market's term premium has spiked to an 11-year high due to fiscal policy uncertainty, pushing the 10-year T-note yield to 4.5%, despite stable inflation and growth; this contrasts with previous similar spikes that often preceded recessions.
Surge in Treasury Term Premium: A Contrarian Investment Thesis
The U.S. Treasury market's term premium has spiked to an 11-year high due to fiscal policy uncertainty, pushing the 10-year T-note yield to 4.5%, despite stable inflation and growth; this contrasts with previous similar spikes that often preceded recessions.
Progress
44% Bias Score
US Stocks Plunge on Rising Yields and Weak Retail Sales
US stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 1.3 percent and the Dow Jones 1.7 percent, due to rising Treasury yields linked to concerns over US government debt and weak retail reports like Target's profit and revenue shortfall.
US Stocks Plunge on Rising Yields and Weak Retail Sales
US stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 1.3 percent and the Dow Jones 1.7 percent, due to rising Treasury yields linked to concerns over US government debt and weak retail reports like Target's profit and revenue shortfall.
Progress
44% Bias Score
Moody's Downgrade Sends Treasury Yields Soaring, Impacts Tech Sector
Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday, citing rising government debt and interest payments; this caused the 30-year Treasury yield to hit 5% and the 10-year yield to reach approximately 4.54%, increasing borrowing costs for the tech sector.
Moody's Downgrade Sends Treasury Yields Soaring, Impacts Tech Sector
Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday, citing rising government debt and interest payments; this caused the 30-year Treasury yield to hit 5% and the 10-year yield to reach approximately 4.54%, increasing borrowing costs for the tech sector.
Progress
40% Bias Score
Upcoming U.S. Inflation Data to Test Stock Markets
The January 15th release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) is expected to influence stock markets and Treasury yields, adding to concerns about inflation and the impact of President Trump's upcoming policies; a Reuters poll predicts a 0.3% monthly increase.
Upcoming U.S. Inflation Data to Test Stock Markets
The January 15th release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) is expected to influence stock markets and Treasury yields, adding to concerns about inflation and the impact of President Trump's upcoming policies; a Reuters poll predicts a 0.3% monthly increase.
Progress
52% Bias Score
Treasury Yields Fluctuate on Volatile First Trading Day of 2025
On January 2nd, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.561% after fluctuating throughout the day, while the 2-year yield was 4.246%; this follows a volatile year for Treasuries and comes amidst mixed economic signals.
Treasury Yields Fluctuate on Volatile First Trading Day of 2025
On January 2nd, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.561% after fluctuating throughout the day, while the 2-year yield was 4.246%; this follows a volatile year for Treasuries and comes amidst mixed economic signals.
Progress
36% Bias Score
US Stocks Rise Despite Trade Tensions
US stock indexes rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.4 percent, the Dow Jones up 0.1 percent, and the Nasdaq up 0.7 percent, despite mixed economic data and ongoing trade tensions; the Australian market is expected to see similar gains.
US Stocks Rise Despite Trade Tensions
US stock indexes rose on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.4 percent, the Dow Jones up 0.1 percent, and the Nasdaq up 0.7 percent, despite mixed economic data and ongoing trade tensions; the Australian market is expected to see similar gains.
Progress
40% Bias Score
Unexplained Surge in Treasury Yields Defies Conventional Explanations
Treasury yields unexpectedly jumped from 4.38 on May 11th to 4.5090 on May 23rd, defying explanations based on known factors like Moody's downgrade, the national debt, or the Trump tax cuts, suggesting the presence of unknown market-moving information.
Unexplained Surge in Treasury Yields Defies Conventional Explanations
Treasury yields unexpectedly jumped from 4.38 on May 11th to 4.5090 on May 23rd, defying explanations based on known factors like Moody's downgrade, the national debt, or the Trump tax cuts, suggesting the presence of unknown market-moving information.
Progress
64% Bias Score
Rising U.S. Debt Fuels Bond Market Volatility
Rising U.S. government debt, fueled by tax cuts and tariff volatility, is causing increased Treasury yields, impacting borrowing costs and potentially slowing economic growth; investors are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of the debt trajectory.
Rising U.S. Debt Fuels Bond Market Volatility
Rising U.S. government debt, fueled by tax cuts and tariff volatility, is causing increased Treasury yields, impacting borrowing costs and potentially slowing economic growth; investors are increasingly concerned about the sustainability of the debt trajectory.
Progress
56% Bias Score
High Treasury Yields Defy Expectations Amidst Market Turmoil
Despite President Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcement and Treasury Secretary Bessent's focus on lowering borrowing costs, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated due to inflationary pressures from tariffs, eroding investor confidence in U.S. governance, and potential retaliatory actions f...
High Treasury Yields Defy Expectations Amidst Market Turmoil
Despite President Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcement and Treasury Secretary Bessent's focus on lowering borrowing costs, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains elevated due to inflationary pressures from tariffs, eroding investor confidence in U.S. governance, and potential retaliatory actions f...
Progress
40% Bias Score
Inflation Fears Trigger U.S. Market Sell-Off
U.S. stocks tumbled on December 2024 after the ISM services index's price index surged to 64.4%, exceeding 60% for the first time since January 2024, prompting concerns about inflation and triggering a rise in Treasury yields and a market sell-off.
Inflation Fears Trigger U.S. Market Sell-Off
U.S. stocks tumbled on December 2024 after the ISM services index's price index surged to 64.4%, exceeding 60% for the first time since January 2024, prompting concerns about inflation and triggering a rise in Treasury yields and a market sell-off.
Progress
60% Bias Score
Rising Interest Rates Threaten 2025 Bull Market
Rising 10-year Treasury yields, currently at 4.573%, threaten the bull market in 2025; historically, such yields correlate with negative equity returns, as evidenced by recent stock market declines when yields exceeded 4.5% and 4.75%.
Rising Interest Rates Threaten 2025 Bull Market
Rising 10-year Treasury yields, currently at 4.573%, threaten the bull market in 2025; historically, such yields correlate with negative equity returns, as evidenced by recent stock market declines when yields exceeded 4.5% and 4.75%.
Progress
44% Bias Score
Showing 1 to 12 of 14 results