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Iran-Israel War: Expert Milani on Regime Miscalculations and Nuclear Threats
Abbas Milani, an expert on Iran, analyzes the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran, attributing it to a misguided decision by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and highlighting the regime's unpreparedness. He also discusses the regime's subsequent calls for nuclear weapons development as a deterrent, while emphasizing the need for internal change in Iran.
- How does the Iranian regime's response to the war reflect its broader strategic goals and domestic challenges?
- Milani links the war to a broader pattern of miscalculations by the Iranian regime, highlighting its unpreparedness despite its rhetoric against Israel. The regime's post-war calls for nuclear weapons development, according to Milani, are rhetorical attempts at deterrence, not a sign of imminent action. He emphasizes that even though Iran possesses the technical capacity, Supreme Leader Khamenei's opposition remains a significant obstacle.
- What are the potential long-term implications of this conflict for regional stability and the future of the Iranian regime?
- Milani predicts the Iranian regime will eventually fall, but stresses that any lasting change must come from within Iran, not through foreign intervention. He points to the persistent Iranian desire for democracy. He also cautions against assuming the regime's downfall would lead to national implosion, citing Iran's enduring history and resilience. The recent war has significantly weakened the Iranian influence previously seen throughout the region.
- What were the key factors contributing to the recent conflict between Israel and Iran, and what are its immediate consequences?
- Abbas Milani, a leading expert on Iran, believes the recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran was unnecessary and unsupported by most Iranians. He attributes the conflict to a misguided decision by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who prioritizes Israel's destruction, a view Milani contends is not widely shared among Iranians. Milani notes Israel's attack exploited Iran's weakness.
Cognitive Concepts
Framing Bias
The framing emphasizes Milani's expertise and presents his opinions as authoritative. While his extensive knowledge is valuable, the interview lacks counterpoints or alternative interpretations. The structure primarily relies on Milani's responses to direct questions, reinforcing his perspective as the central narrative.
Language Bias
The language used is generally neutral and factual when presenting information. However, Milani's opinions contain strong value judgements, such as referring to the Iranian regime as "murderous" and characterizing certain actions as "senseless." While these reflect his perspective, they lack the neutrality expected in objective reporting.
Bias by Omission
The interview focuses heavily on Abbas Milani's opinions and analysis of Iran's geopolitical situation, particularly concerning its relationship with Israel. While it touches on internal Iranian politics and the potential for regime change, it lacks diverse perspectives from other Iranian analysts, politicians, or ordinary citizens. The omission of these voices limits a comprehensive understanding of the complexities within Iran and the various viewpoints on its foreign policy.
False Dichotomy
The interview presents a somewhat simplified dichotomy between Iran's stated intentions and its actual actions. For instance, Milani suggests Iran's nuclear ambitions are primarily for deterrence, but acknowledges the possibility of actual weaponization. This nuanced position isn't fully explored, potentially leading to an oversimplified view for the reader.
Gender Bias
The interview focuses solely on the opinions of a male expert, Abbas Milani. There's no mention of female perspectives on Iranian politics, foreign policy, or the potential for regime change. This lack of gender balance is a significant omission.
Sustainable Development Goals
The article discusses the conflict between Iran and Israel, highlighting the negative impact on regional peace and stability. The potential for escalation due to Iran's threatened development of nuclear weapons further exacerbates the situation and undermines efforts towards peace and justice. The actions of both sides, including Israel's attacks and Iran's support for groups like Hezbollah, contribute to instability and threaten regional security. The author points out the missed opportunities for peace through diplomacy, and the detrimental effects of actions that escalate tensions and violence.